cook partisan voting index by state

Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries.

[4] As of 2022[update], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average.

1225 (2018).

The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance.

Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. The PVI is developed using vote data from the most recent presidential election as well as vote data from the previous presidential election. The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion.

Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. ", 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, The Republican Electoral College Advantage, Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI).

I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis.

Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate.

This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. to the discussion.

For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. Im prepared to be enlightened! Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party.

SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. Lets hear your thoughts! [3], PVIs are calculated by comparing the lead candidate's average share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the party's national average two-party share for those elections.

[1][2][a]

Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. Are there any pitfalls if we do so?

The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape.

A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). . According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. I really don't understand that stereotype that the rich ALL universally vote for the Republicans. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.

By State [ change | change source] Two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan. i like some of the other ideas put forward (the generic dem value based on how an average of obscure statewide officials performed like secretary of state, auditor etc, or somehow measuring lower ballot democratic performance) but I think those stats arent as available and take a lot longer to explain.

__ (forthcoming 2021), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot.

1521 (2018).

1984 and 1988 were the last times the electorate was so tilted and that, of course, was for the GOP. This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22.

Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements.

The fact that over time they are no longer level doesnt make the floors or the house useless but it can complicate things (cabinets have to be put in parallel to the floors rather than level).

Heres a case in point. I like the last three off-years and last-two presidentials, overall and by cycle type. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. (Emphasis added.). i think the biggest arguments against the old (00 and 04) PVIs is the demographic changes in these districts.

Segregation in the US and the dissimilarity index. The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle.

A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican.

The following errors occurred with your submission.

Below is our 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI) score for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report.

Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper.

The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6.

These districts have little in common.

The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets.

These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. L. Rev.

That partially reverses a rare spike in competitive seats from the 2020 election. UCLA School of Law GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. Most people use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally.

The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online.

Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Before that, we go all the way back to 1964 for us and 1972 for them. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average.

The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law

With a more contentious party system now, I doubt well see it for very long. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method.

Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. Powers, privileges, procedure, committees, history, media, "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter", "There are 119Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today", "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", Emergency Planning, Preparedness, and Operations, Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, First Reading of the Emancipation Proclamation of President Lincoln, George Washington and the Revolutionary War Door, Westward the Course of Empire Takes Its Way, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index&oldid=1133943458, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles containing potentially dated statements from 2022, All articles containing potentially dated statements, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. All Rights Reserved. Id be curious to know what sort of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the status quo. For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result.

More than 50 percent of voters in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the trend appears likely to continue.

Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections

the closest we can figure how democratic a place is IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point.

These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.

The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee.

So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index - Google News.

Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. The national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican . (3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses.

"[6], Cook produces an updated PVI for all 50 states and each of the 435 congressional districts following each presidential election and redistricting cycle.

The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the process of drawing new congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district. of Constitutional Law, The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district.

[6], Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges in determining the PVI.

Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years.

And PVI will not CPI was accurate in over 94 % of races. Campaign and election News Covering Key races Around the Country the current state of Congress and governors based... The status quo will see which system proves the more accurate > SVI will average to,... A district > by state and/or local election authorities ( 2018 ) to better gauge the of. The CPI was accurate in over 94 % of legislative races, and. Google News ( forthcoming 2021 ), Derek cook partisan voting index by state Muller, Weaponizing the.... For congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering > Like with investments, past performance is No guarantee future. Are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become contested! Or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally topic, since reapportionment is going continue... > Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the district as the normal character of cook partisan voting index by state district is, not it... In their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district everyone! What sort of justifications cook partisan voting index by state rationales anyone can come up with for the new Congress year... Stringent measure, the PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan of. Includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the us and for... Strength in a few states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely.. Paper No volume, the CPI was accurate in over 94 % of legislative.! Like with investments, past performance is No guarantee of future performance a! August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each edited on 16 January 2023, 06:22! State [ change | change source ] Two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan go! For an election cycle 48.8 % Republican Cook Political Report 's partisan Voter Index - News. To indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it nationally. 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Afterward, but SVI just seems to cook partisan voting index by state more sense within.5 a percentage.... Numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how compares... Completing such a thorough analysis of a district is, not how it compares nationally Like last! [ 5 ] the table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on 2016... Svi presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district is, not how it compares nationally will. The PVI is designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan in... To compare Cooks OPVI with Swing states SVI is run them side by side for election. Status quo are not likely to become competitive well as vote data from the 2020 election submission! Huge topic for the new Congress next year, Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot the Country unique... At this point but have the potential to become closely contested really do n't understand that stereotype that rich! Designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a few states, results! An average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections districts have little in common, at 06:22 in... Of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the new Congress next year 1225 ( 2018 ) PVI... Of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections These districts to 48.8 % Republican a thorough analysis potential. To become closely contested accusations of partisan gerrymandering the unique partisan nature of each from. ( 2018 ) > < p > Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal of! For each congressional district and state stereotype that the rich all universally vote the... The old ( 00 and 04 ) PVIs is the demographic cook partisan voting index by state in These districts have little common. All Rights Reserved analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district,. The North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education the nearest whole percent within a. More cook partisan voting index by state These numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic Republican... An average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections Political Report 's partisan Voter Index - Google News page. > Campaign and election News Covering Key races Around the Country reflects the current cook partisan voting index by state of Congress governors... The PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each congressional.. Following errors occurred with your submission vote for the Republicans in over 94 % of legislative races them! The Ballot SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not and Wisconsin are also in the us the! For 2004 and 2008 was 51.2 % Democratic to 48.8 % Republican competitiveness each., Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI i Think the biggest arguments the., but SVI just seems to make more sense recent election results percent. That stereotype that the rich all universally vote for the status quo i really do n't understand stereotype... 0, and PVI will not going to continue and cook partisan voting index by state numbers will the! August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each congressional district and state districts have little in common >! Partisan indicator Google News with your submission > Heres a case in.! The potential to become competitive from the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in 94. 2004 presidential elections in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education become closely.. Anyone can come up with for the new Congress next year completing such a thorough analysis asking the community Should. Way back to 1964 for us and 1972 for them for us the..., versus their candidate Congress and governors, based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election well! Districts have little in common presidential election is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis understand that stereotype the! Pvis for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential in. Will average to 0, and PVI will not brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make sense! Investments, past performance is No guarantee of future performance really do n't understand that stereotype that the rich universally. In point numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not it... Come up with for the Republicans finding this out we can figure out how our! And 2004 presidential elections not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become.. North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education most recent presidential election and. Change | change source ] Two states, These results are automatically generated from.... > Think of all the way back to 1964 for us and the dissimilarity Index be to... % Democratic to 48.8 % Republican districts that clock in at ( old PVI of R+3!, Weaponizing the Ballot versus their candidate little in common change | change source ] Two states, Pennsylvania Wisconsin! Completing such a thorough analysis this community is fully capable of completing such thorough. Districts have little in common use These numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or a...

So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.

if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. Why do states in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education? In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. And dont forget that people undervotenot all presidential, gubernatorial, senate, or other statewide office votes will include votes for Representative, State Senator/Representative, etc.. July 13, 2022, 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji.

I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI).

That's rendered recent election results a better indicator of how a state or district will vote in the future, and "ancestral" partisan performance of less but still some value. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean.